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Poland is back in the spotlight after reports that the United States has warned Warsaw that Russia may be preparing a military provocation on Polish territory to test NATO’s resolve. The warning comes shortly before the NATO summit in Ankara, raising new questions about deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank and the reliability of US support in Europe.

For decades, Poland has depended on the US for its defense. But with Donald Trump signaling a possible pullback of American forces from Europe, alarm is growing in Warsaw and across NATO’s eastern flank. Poland is building up its own military power, deepening ties with Nordic and Baltic partners, and thinking harder about how it can deter Russia on its own terms, including increasingly the question of nuclear deterrence. At the same time, Poland is lobbying hard for a permanent US military base, as it seeks to make the ongoing US review of force posture in Europe work in its favor.

The strategic questions Poland needs to answer are clear: Can Poland still count on the US? Can NATO hold the line on its eastern flank? And how far is Russia prepared to go?

We have put these questions to Jacek Bartosiak (Strategy & Future), Justyna Gotkowska (Centre for Eastern Studies OSW), and Sumantra Maitra (Royal Historical Society).

00:00 Can Poland still count on the US?
01:23 Russia's war in Ukraine and its effects on Poland
02:52 Putin's threats against Poland
04:01 Washington's changing view on Russia
04:49 US troops in Poland and Trump's plans
06:12 How Poland is rearming itself
07:29 Polish history: divided and occupied
08:24 How Poland joined NATO
09:50 Why NATO-Russia crisis unfolded
11:48 How NATO reinforced the Eastern Flank
12:32 Poland and Ukraine: dangerous crisis
13:22 Trump's shift on NATO and Russia
14:11 Eastern Flank and Nordic countries
15:10 Baltic flashpoint: Kaliningrad?
15:41 Poland's problem with Germany
16:59 Will Poland get nuclear weapons?
18:29 Will Kremlin push Poland and the US apart?

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