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As the Russia-Ukraine war continues, growing attention is turning towards Belarus and President Alexander Lukashenko. Belarus has already played an important role in Russia's war effort, including allowing Russian forces to use Belarusian territory and providing military infrastructure and logistical support. But the question now is whether Minsk could take a more direct military role.

Belarus has not sent its own troops into combat in Ukraine, but concerns over deeper involvement have increased. Recent analysis has highlighted Belarusian military preparations, joint exercises with Russia and the strategic importance of its territory along Ukraine's northern border.

The timing is particularly significant as Belarus marks the sixth anniversary of the disputed August 2020 presidential election, which triggered mass protests against Lukashenko's rule. The opposition, led at the time by Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, rejected the official result and maintained that she had won the election. The protests were followed by a sweeping crackdown and increased Belarusian dependence on Moscow.

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