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Tories lead Reform UK in a shocking new poll for the first time in 18 months. Labour still ahead, but the right is splitting — here’s what the numbers actually mean.The latest More in Common poll puts the Conservatives on 23%, Reform on 22% and Labour on 26%. That one-point Tory lead is inside the margin of error, yet it is Reform’s lowest share with this pollster in 18 months and the Tories’ highest since January. I break down the full voting intention figures, and whether Kemi Badenoch is genuinely recovering or this is just noise before conference season.

If you follow UK polling, Reform UK, or the Conservative recovery under Badenoch, this video gives you the context most headlines skip.

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