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Higher debt interest costs look set to drive the level of 'fiscal headroom' from £24bn in March to £10bn. There's a growing sense that Chancellor John Healey would like to get this up to £15bn or higher. The government is set to modestly increase spending on the cost of living, though the total intervention is unlikely to meaningfully top £5bn and it's likely to be mostly billed as temporary to avoid counting against the main fiscal rule. We expect an increase in capital spending of roughly £10bn/year, bearing in mind this is exempt from the fiscal rule dictating that the current budget must be in surplus after five years. To rebuild headroom against that rule, we expect £5-6bn of tax hikes, likely via a higher Bank Surcharge and possibly broadening the National Insurance tax base.

#business #UK #budget #wion

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