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We’re taking another look at France's fiscal crisis; why it presents the European Central Bank (or ECB) with a difficult dilemma; and why some sort of ECB bailout is perhaps more likely than is commonly assumed.

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Sources:
France bond yield data
https://tradingeconomics.com/f....rance/government-bon
https://www.worldgovernmentbon....ds.com/spread/france

France debt/deficit data:
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/....en/web/products-euro
https://www.bloomberg.com/news..../articles/2026-07-22
https://www.imf.org/external/d....atamapper/GGXCNL_G01

Odds for next French presidential election:
https://polymarket.com/event/n....ext-french-president

Le Pen platform evaluated:
https://www.politico.eu/articl....e/le-pen-unveils-eco
https://think.ing.com/articles..../frances-national-ra

TPI applicability:
https://x.com/lugaricano/statu....s/210604114756704715

Le Pen on leaving the euro in 2017:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38511058

Melenchon partial default plans:
https://www.ft.com/content/1b4....16427-0e86-40c0-9536

Market reaction to “whatever it takes”:
https://www.bruegel.org/policy....-brief/effectiveness

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