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Russia cannot defeat NATO in open war, but it doesn't need to. By engineering calibrated provocations—missile strikes on empty territory, wilderness land grabs, or seizing pro-Russian border cities—Moscow aims to create impossible situations where NATO members hesitate to respond, shattering the alliance's collective defence guarantee and fracturing European unity permanently.

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References
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https://x.com/shashj/status/2100989842939105591
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https://x.com/casusbellii/stat....us/21009173345839845
https://x.com/RALee85/status/2100787100991758627
https://x.com/Vit_Ovchar/statu....s/210092651670815137
https://x.com/ianbremmer/statu....s/210098495188151940
https://www.npr.org/2026/09/18..../nx-s1-5973265/polan
https://x.com/CoffeReport/stat....us/21006659167240519
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https://www.belfercenter.org/r....esearch-analysis/rus
https://theconversation.com/na....to-is-concerned-abou


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